Weekly “Argumenty i Fakty” No. 26. Capital evidence 29/06/2022
In 4–5 years network doctors, biopharmacologists and agro-cybernetics
School graduates passed the Unified State Examination, received certificates and now they have to decide what profession they will be receive.
Universities will accept documents until 25 July. College admissions will run until mid-August. To help yesterday's schoolchildren with a choice, “AiF” I found out how the situation on the labor market can change, which specialists will be in demand in 4 5 years, and who is at risk of being left out of work.
Deprecated and disappeared
“Under the influence of the digitalization of the economy, the labor market is seriously changing, the demand for some professions is declining, although it is still far from their complete disappearance. These include the profession of accountant, librarian, proofreader, travel agent, — says Associate Professor of the Department of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation "Human Resource Management" REU them. Plekhanova Ludmila Ivanova-Shvets.
«If before, young people en masse wanted to go to work in tax, do accounting, auditing, etc. then now it is shifting to the second plan, — considers the head of the Department of the Center for the Development of Education Strategy of Moscow State University. Lomonosov Konstantin Ziskin. — C On the one hand, these areas have become highly digitalised. A c another — Obviously, the real sector of the economy will be more in demand (primarily the oil industry), all kinds of small businesses (bakery and etc.).
Architects of the transition
At the same time, in the real sector of the economy, polarization, which has been outlined for a long time, will become even more pronounced. There will be a demand for highly qualified specialists, development engineers of everything that is possible, and also for low-skilled — let's say C machine operators will probably soon be replaced by workers who knew how to work on old machines.
«The process of import substitution of complex technologies will require at least 10 years, and and and more — considers Dmitry Sudakov, head of the Atlas of Emerging Jobs project, member of the expert council of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives. & mdash; what is left, and then the transition to “downgraded” technology. This is especially noticeable in the field of electronics. For example, airlines and car factories have already encountered this. You can't simply wave a magic wand and switch from one technology to another, if so far we just took and buyed everything that was missing. I think that in the next 4 & ndash; 6 years, old domestic machines and technologies will begin to return to & nbsp; operation. And & nbsp; it means that the old specialists of lower qualification who knew how to work for them will again be in demand. But along with that “transition architects”, that there are people who will adapt production to new conditions”.
Who will have a lot of work and money
All experts are sure that there will be a huge demand for IT specialists — from developers of consumer applications, programs for business and government agencies to experts in information security.
“There will be a lot of work for these people, and it will be well paid, because they are universal specialists: if they don’t like working in Russian companies, they can get jobs in Chinese, European or American ones. Boundaries don't matter here. But there will be an enormous demand for such people — Dmitry Sudakov claims.
According to PRUE them. Plekhanov, the average nominal salary of a specialist employed in the field of software has increased from 37.2 to 120 k. rub. (in 3.22 times). “Logisticians will be in great demand (they deal with supply chains — from production to warehouses and shops, route development, etc. d.), — considers Director of the Center for the Economics of Lifelong Education at the RANEPA Professor Tatyana Klyachko. — We will need managers and marketers who can organize the work of companies in new conditions. I think that for some period the demand for industrial designers will drop. But this will be a short-term phenomenon. If desired, such specialists will be able to work, as they now say, in other locations, since a good designer is always needed. Apparently, so that the economy does not stall, housing construction will develop, so interior designers will also most likely be in demand. Plus, if we develop our own light industry, then in a couple of years the demand for clothes designers will also grow. Therefore, if there is an interest in design, take a closer look at these professions. Finally, doctors and teachers will always be in demand.
Doctors are definitely not in danger of a lack of jobs, Dmitry Sudakov confirms: “I think, on the contrary, there will be a great demand for doctors, because the medical staff, especially the middle and junior ones, have been very much mowed down by the covid. Someone burned out and changed their profession, some died.
At the intersection of professions
New trend — not narrow professionals, but specialists at the junction of several professions.
“For example, in the medical field, these are not only doctors, but and bioethicists, network doctors, telesurgeons, neuropsychologists, biopharmacologists, bioengineers, — explains Ludmila Ivanova-Shvets. — — agro-cybernetics, GMO agronomists, agricultural ecologists, food production biotechnologists. In production — not just engineers, but design engineers, 3D printing engineers, robotics engineers. Among the listed professions there are those that were predicted even 5 years ago, and there are more applications for such specialists».
Specialists advise humanitarians to pay attention to psychology, because the restructuring of millions of people to a different way of life will certainly be accompanied by considerable stress. And psychologists, psychotherapists will be in demand.
What skills will be needed in the near future for success? The crisis will hit people very hard — Dmitry Sudakov says — In in a way we will be going back to 90s, when there was a principle “want to live — know how to spin. Thank you covid — I call it “the inoculation of the future”: it showed people that it can be found new ways to earn money related to remote work, online, self-employment, etc. etc. In the near future, entrepreneurial talents, skills in inventing your own business, and self-promotion will be critically needed. This also needs to be learned.
And still in choosing a profession, it is not always worth chasing trends and fashion. According to statistics, a third of university graduates do not work in their specialty. “Key Tip — you have to choose what you like, but be ready to constantly learn and relearn», — says Tatyana Klyachko.
By the way
What has changed in the labor market over the year?
There are more vacancies for doctors 2 times, skilled workers in construction — in 2 times, in truck — 2 times. Demand for purchasing specialists has increased by 3 times, for couriers — 5 times times more — by 30%, cybersecurity — — by 26%.
It has become more difficult to find work for lawyers, insurance specialists, and administrative staff.
Don't panic
A number of professions were predicted “death” due to robotization, but these predictions will not come true soon Until they are idle:
- bus and taxi drivers;
- call center operators;
- salesmen and waiters.
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